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Penn State’s second-half comeback failed, and the Nittany Lions’ hopes for a Big Ten title and a College Football Playoff berth ended in Columbus.
Lions players and coaches were dejected on Saturday, but the CFP committee may look at their 28-17 loss at Ohio State much more favorably. Enough, perhaps, to get Penn State back to Pasadena and a third New Year’s Six bowl bid in four seasons.
What to look for when the committee releases its newest poll on Tuesday night is where the Lions sit in relation to Minnesota and Wisconsin for a potential Rose Bowl berth.
If Ohio State wins the Big Ten and heads to the Playoff, the Rose Bowl would get the next highest Big Ten team in the committee’s rankings to pair up against most likely Utah or Oregon out of the Pac-12.
Penn State (9-2) was No. 8 before the loss, ahead of the No. 10 Golden Gophers (now 10-1) and No. 12 Badgers (9-2), who face off Saturday in Minneapolis for the Big Ten West title.
Jerry Palm, whose college football and basketball postseason predictions are a staple of both seasons, believes that a Gophers win will likely be enough to land them in the Rose Bowl regardless of how they would fare against Ohio State in the conference championship.
But if the Badgers prevail and then lose to the Buckeyes the next week in Indianapolis — a situation that Palm is predicting will happen — he has the Lions ticketed for Pasadena. And it’s largely because they played No. 2 Ohio State tougher than any other team this season.
“I believe that performance will keep them ahead of No. 12 Wisconsin in the rankings,” Palm wrote Sunday for CBSsports.com. “Which is important because — if Ohio State ends up in the playoff as expected — the higher rated of those two could end up in the Rose Bowl” if Minnesota loses this week.
One potential wrench in that plan could be if Michigan were to upset Ohio State this week. That could easily rocket the No. 13 Wolverines up the rankings and ahead of the Lions.
Penn State’s loss to the Buckeyes will certainly drop them below Minnesota this week, but they figure to still be ahead of Wisconsin and Michigan. And if Minnesota finishes 10-2 along with Penn State, the committee has twice ranked the Lions ahead of the Gophers when they had the same record, even after Minnesota’s head-to-head win.
Another interesting subplot for Tuesday’s rankings is Florida. If the Lions are the highest two-loss team ahead of the Gators, that opens the door to two other New Year’s Six bowls, the Orange or the Cotton.
The Orange Bowl will get the top-ranked available team from the Big Ten, SEC or Notre Dame. Most likely that will go to an SEC squad like Alabama or Georgia. But if the Playoff takes two SEC teams — say, if Georgia beats LSU in the SEC championship and both make it — that would bump Alabama up to the Sugar Bowl and leave the Orange Bowl bid to Penn State or Florida.
If the SEC only gets one team in the Playoff, the final New Year’s Six at-large bid is in the Cotton Bowl, which will get the highest ranked team still available. Penn State and Florida would be in the mix along with the loser of the Big 12 title game between Oklahoma and Baylor. If Utah suffers a second loss, the Utes would be in that group, too.
But Penn State would almost certainly have to be ahead of Florida this week to have a shot at the Orange or Cotton.
Fortunately for the Lions, the people ranking the teams have liked their resume all season.
“The committee is impressed with Penn State,” CFP chairman Rob Mullens said last week. “They’ve beat a No. 13 Michigan, won a tough road game at Iowa. Their only loss is to the team ranked No. 10, and a non-conference win over a 7-3 Pittsburgh team. Those are all quality wins.”
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It had never happened before in Penn State history. In a stretch of six games, the Lions faced five teams that entered the matchup ranked in the AP top 25.
The Lions went 4-2 against Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State (unranked), Minnesota, Indiana and Ohio State.
In other words, it’s time for a breather.
That’s the charitable way of describing Penn State’s regular season finale as the Lions host woeful Rutgers for senior day on Saturday at Beaver Stadium. Kickoff will be 3:30 p.m. on the Big Ten Network.
The Scarlet Knights dropped to 2-9 and 0-8 in conference play this weekend by getting blanked 27-0 at home by Michigan State. Their lone wins on the season came against UMass (1-11) and Liberty (6-5), with the Flames having recently moved up to the FBS ranks.
Coach Chris Ash was fired after five games this season, going 8-32 in his three-plus seasons in Piscataway. Tight ends coach Nunzio Campanile has been serving as the interim coach.
For weeks, it was assumed that former Rutgers boss and one-time Penn State assistant Greg Schiano would return to lead the program. But negotiations broke down Sunday afternoon, with NJ.com and multiple national outlets reporting that Rutgers wasn’t willing to make the financial commitments Schiano wanted with regards to facilities and staffing.