Penn State coach James Franklin celebrates with his daughter Addy following Saturday’s win over Michigan State. The Lions finished 10-2 in the regular season with a top-10 ranking.
Barry Reeger | AP photo
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After two seasons of .500 football, Penn State is back in the top 10 to finish the regular season.
Now the Nittany Lions are waiting for a likely bid to a New Year’s Six bowl. And yes, a trip to Pasadena is still a possibility.
A 10-2 showing landed Penn State at No. 8 in the College Football Playoff committee’s penultimate ranking on Tuesday night.
That should be enough to place the Lions in the Rose Bowl, Cotton Bowl or Orange Bowl when the matchups are finalized on Sunday.
But it’s not a guarantee. A major upset in the SEC or Big Ten championship games could potentially drop Penn State just out of the mix and into the Citrus Bowl.
Asked about the importance of — or lack thereof — a New Year’s Six bid during this four-team playoff era, Lions coach James Franklin said it can still provide a boost.
“I think it’s still important to go to the biggest and the best games you possibly can in the postseason,” Franklin said after Saturday’s win over Michigan State. “Whether that is a New Years Six bowl game or whatever, there’s still value in it, but I understand your point.”
Here’s a look at the situation.
ROSE BOWL
The cleanest way for the Lions to head to the Granddaddy of Them All is for the Big Ten to land both No. 2 Michigan and No. 5 Ohio State in the playoff. Penn State then becomes a no-brainer selection for the Big Ten’s slot in the Rose.
Tuesday’s rankings gave hope to that scenario. The Buckeyes are the next team up if No. 4 USC loses its Pac-12 championship matchup against No. 11 Utah on Friday.
In that situation, the Lions would play the Utes, who would be Pac-12 champs.
It’s possible the Buckeyes could also steal a bid from No. 3 TCU if the Horned Frogs lose to No. 10 Kansas State in the Big 12 title game on Saturday. But TCU is undefeated and may not fall out of the top four with a loss, whereas USC already has a loss.
Franklin noted last week that he would like to see the Big Ten be more vocal in support of getting two teams into the playoff — something that has never happened before — noting that the SEC has been more effective at “pounding the table” in that regard.
Penn State, of course, just missed the playoff in 2016, finishing fifth without much of a public word from then-commissioner Jim Delany.
A few days later, Franklin said he would leave the advocating — behind-the-scenes or otherwise — to new athletic director Pat Kraft.
“Pat will handle all these things,” Franklin said. “He’s got tremendous experience doing it. The Big Ten will do everything they possibly can to help all the teams within the conference, getting the best situations we possibly can. There were some interesting games last week, some interesting games this week that impact us, put us in a more favorable position, but we’ll see how it plays out.”
If the top four holds and Ohio State misses out, there remains a chance the Lions could go to Pasadena. In choosing a replacement for Big Ten champ Michigan, the Rose Bowl could conceivably choose Penn State over the Buckeyes, who have played in the game two of the last four years, including this past January.
That would free up Ohio State to go to the Orange Bowl while Penn State plays in the Rose — perhaps against No. 12 Washington.
COTTON/ORANGE BOWL
Nearly every set of bowl projections right now has Penn State landing in the Cotton Bowl. It would be the same situation as in 2019, where the Lions would take on the top-ranked Group of 5 conference champion, which would be the winner of this weekend’s AAC title game between No. 18 Tulane and No. 22 UCF.
Barring some sort of negotiating between the New Year’s Six bowls, it seems unlikely the Lions can grab the open spot into the Orange, which goes to the top-ranked available team from the SEC, Big Ten or Notre Dame.
Both No. 6 Alabama and No. 7 Tennessee remained ranked ahead of Penn State on Tuesday. One of them is in line to play in the Sugar Bowl, while the other would head to the Orange.
That leaves the at-large spot to the Cotton as the last chair available, which goes to the top-ranked team left available from any conference. If the Lions aren’t selected for the Rose, the Cotton becomes the most likely landing spot.
Penn State beat Memphis in the Cotton to end the 2019 season.
CITRUS BOWL
Even at No. 8, there are chances that Penn State gets left out of the New Year’s Six to play an SEC team in Orlando.
If No. 14 LSU beats No. 1 Georgia in the SEC title game, the Tigers grab the automatic bid to the Sugar Bowl, pushing Alabama and Tennessee down into the Orange and Cotton slots.
Likewise, if unranked Purdue knocks off No. 2 Michigan in the Big Ten championship, the Boilermakers head to the Rose Bowl. And if the Buckeyes aren’t in the playoff, that places them in the Orange while Alabama and Tennessee go to the Sugar and Cotton.
If Penn State plays in the Citrus, the next highest-ranked teams are No. 19 South Carolina and No. 24 Mississippi State for the bowl game to choose from as an opponent.