Quarterback Drew Allar (15) and Penn State are sitting at No. 4 in the second week of rankings by the College Football Playoff’s selection committee. That would translate to a No. 6 seed in the 12-team bracket, which would land the Nittany Lions a home game in the first round.
Barry Reeger | AP photo
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Penn State has nearly hit the ceiling for its seeding for the College Football Playoff.
The Nittany Lions moved up two spots to No. 4 in the latest CFP committee rankings on Tuesday, which would translate to a No. 6 seed in the inaugural 12-team bracket next month.
The top four seeds — and the important first-round bye that comes with them — are reserved for the highest-ranked conference champions. With Penn State’s path to the Big Ten title game looking extremely narrow, that would mean the Lions only have one spot higher to climb in the seeding.
Tuesday’s rankings would pit No. 6 seed Penn State against No. 11 seed Ole Miss on either Dec. 20 or Dec. 21 at Beaver Stadium — a rematch of last winter’s Peach Bowl, won by the Rebels. The winner of that game would face the No. 3 seed — in this case, projected Big 12 champ BYU — in a major bowl game in the quarterfinals.
Penn State would need some help to reach the conference championship as the Lions are fourth in the standings behind Oregon, Indiana and Ohio State.
The most likely scenario to reach Indianapolis is Ohio State beating Indiana in two weeks with the Buckeyes losing their finale to Michigan after that. That would put Ohio State at two conference losses with Penn State currently in line to have the tiebreaker over the Hoosiers.
But for now, the Lions’ focus is on winning out and securing a home game in the first round. If Penn State closes out the regular season with wins on the road at Purdue (1-8) and Minnesota (6-4), then beats Maryland (4-5) at home, the odds of hosting are high.
It’s not a guarantee, however. Even an 11-1 Lions team could slip behind other teams. No. 7 Tennessee, for example, could see a big jump with a win at No. 12 Georgia on Saturday.
Losing any of their last three games would put Penn State firmly on the playoff bubble. In a battle with a host of other two-loss teams for an at-large spot, the Lions would be hurt by their lack of a marquee win. Illinois has the best record out of Penn State’s conquests at 6-3.
NATIONAL PICTURE
Undefeated Oregon stayed on top in the second batch of College Football Playoff rankings, while Tuesday’s poll shoved Georgia completely out of the bracket after its lopsided loss to Mississippi.
Led by the Ducks, then Ohio State, the Big Ten captured four of the top five spots — a string interrupted only by Texas of the Southeastern Conference, which was slotted in at No. 3 and would receive a first-round bye.
Georgia’s 28-10 loss to Ole Miss dropped the Bulldogs from third to all the way to 12th, but they would be the first team out because No. 13 Boise State of the Mountain West would receive an automatic bid and the final spot in the 12-team bracket as the fifth-best conference champion.
BYU was ranked sixth, but would receive a first-round bye as the Big 12’s champion if it wins out.
Those byes go to the four highest-ranked conference champions, meaning Miami of the Atlantic Coast Conference would get a pass into the quarterfinals per this week’s version of the bracket despite a loss to Georgia Tech that dropped the Hurricanes five spots to No. 9.
The other ranked teams: No. 4 Penn State, No. 5 Indiana, No. 7 Tennessee, No. 8 Notre Dame, No. 10 Alabama and No. 11 Ole Miss.
The CFP committee releases rankings every week, closing on Dec. 8 with the final poll that will determine the official pairings. College football’s first 12-team playoff begins with first-round games Dec. 20-21 and concludes with the title game on Jan. 20.
Much of the hand-wringing this week had to do with Georgia’s nine-spot drop in the rankings and its ouster from the bracket. Yes, the Bulldogs have two losses, but they also have what is widely regarded as the toughest schedule in the country. It wouldn’t seem right, though, if they were ranked ahead of Ole Miss after last Saturday’s beatdown.
“Both Alabama and Ole Miss beat them head-to-head,” said Michigan athletic director Warde Manuel, who chairs the selection committee. “As we went through the rankings and looked at everyone, they obviously fell to 12, but it’s based on who won in front of them, head-to-head and everything we look at in terms of body of work.”
Both the SEC and Big Ten placed four teams in the projected Week 2 bracket.
Undefeated Army of the American Athletic Conference moved up one spot to No. 24 — still behind three teams with three losses — while Colorado came in at No. 17. Coach Deion Sanders’ Buffaloes can earn a spot in the Big 12 title game by winning their next two games.
PROJECTED FIRST-ROUND MATCHUPS
First-round games will take place on the campus of the better-seeded team. Here’s what the matchups would look like based on this week’s rankings (teams listed by seed, not ranking):
No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Ohio State: The Buckeyes could still get a chance to avenge their one-point loss to Oregon in the Big Ten title game.
No. 11 Ole Miss at No. 6 Penn State: Rivalry brewing? The Rebels beat the Nittany Lions 38-25 in the 2023 Peach Bowl.
No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Indiana: Alabama has 77 bowl appearances; Indiana has 13.
No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Tennessee: The programs have split eight meetings. Notre Dame won the last one in 2005.
BIG GAMES THIS WEEK
Utah at Colorado, Kansas at BYU: Last week, Utah and KU played like what a lot of people expected they would be this season: Big 12 contenders. Now they get a chance to play spoiler.
Tennessee at Georgia: the only matchup between top-12 teams this week. Would a Bulldogs win put them back into the bracket?
Clemson at Pittsburgh: The Tigers, ranked 20th, would conceivably get back into contention for something — a spot in the ACC title game? — with a win.