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We annually encourage all eligible people to vote, and as this ugly, unpredictable election cycle finally winds down to Tuesday, we do so again. But this time, it’s different.
And we mean different beyond the fact that this is the first time in decades that one of the candidates is a former president who lost his bid for re-election (yes, he lost in 2020, please move on). And different beyond the fact that a candidate for a major party bowed out of the race just weeks before his nominating convention. And different beyond having the first female of minority decent on a major party ballot.
It’s different because of something that has already happened.
Reports began circulating Thursday that more than half of voters may have already cast their ballots nationwide. And it’s easy to believe. There have been dramatic daily increases in the number of early voting tabulations, with the count shooting up by millions every 24 hours. One report on Wednesday said more than 55 million had voted, while another on Thursday estimated the total had topped 60 million. By Friday afternoon, the Associated Press reported voters nationwide had “returned a total of 68,023,790” ballots.
Anybody remember when some Republicans — notably Donald Trump himself — railed against any type of early voting? They demanded that all votes be cast in person on a single day. The notion was rubbish then, and it’s rubbish now. It just took a few years for the truth to become glaring: Given the choice, voters prefer options beyond same-day, in-person.
Historically, this is a tectonic shift in our electoral landscape. According to the MIT Election Data Science Lab, States began allowing limited absentee voting in the 1800s, with the option getting new traction during the Civil War, allowing soldiers to cast ballots from their battlefield units to be counted at home. During World War II, Congress passed laws attempting to codify voting by overseas soldiers, with limited initial success. California became the first state to allow eligible voters to request absentee ballots for any reason in the 1980s. In 1998, Oregon became the first state to issue all ballots by mail — though voters don’t have to return them by mail.
Yet MIT notes it wasn’t until the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 that early votes exceeded in-person voting nationwide. In-person preference rebounded in 2022, but with this year’s numbers soaring, the shift can no longer be dismissed as an anomaly. And despite ongoing fear-mongering about the safety of early voting — especially mail-in ballots — there is little sense in attempting to squeeze this particular toothpaste back into the tube. Early voting has been around a long time and has worked very well. Done correctly, there is no reason to stop offering an option people have clearly come to prefer.
None of which, sadly, appears likely to prevent some pundits and politicians from challenging the results of early voting next week. We would argue some Republicans, including Trump, have already been laying the groundwork to do so if they lose. That’s their right, as well as a right any Democrats have. But the risk seems obvious: The movement to early voting means such challenges risk alienating a majority of Americans.
The trend, however, should have no effect on going to the polls in person on Tuesday if that’s your preference. Even if a majority of votes have been cast, that doesn’t mean “the die is cast.” An appeal at this stage to make sure your voice is heard should not fall on deaf ears.
If you haven’t done it yet, on Tuesday, get out and vote. Yes, the way the elections are held has changed, but one thing remains the same.
Every vote counts.